The OSCARS are here!

I just love Oscar season! Ever since I was a wee lad, I've watched the show. This year should be good for a few reasons. #1. Ellen Degeneres should be a good host, maybe even a great one. (it won't take much to beat Jon Stewart. . .) #2. The Best Picture race is WIDE open this year. Anyway, I know you've been waiting with baited breath, so here are my predictions in the major categories . . .

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

• Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine
• Jackie Earle Haley for Little Children
• Djimon Hounsou for Blood Diamond
• Eddie Murphy for Dreamgirls
• Mark Wahlberg for The Departed

Breakdown: This one is a no-brainer: Eddie Murphy. He won the major awards leading up to this and has had the most buzz, so I think that he’s got the best chance to win.

Predicted Winner: Eddie Murphy

If I was voting: Djimon Hounsou

Possible upsets: Alan Arkin, Mark Wahlberg.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

• Adriana Barraza for Babel
• Cate Blanchett for Notes on a Scandal
• Abigail Breslin for Little Miss Sunshine
• Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls
• Rinko Kikuchi for Babel

Breakdown: Again, this one is a no-brainer. In fact, I think that it’s even easier to call than the previous category. Jennifer Hudson will win this one walking away.

Predicted Winner: Jennifer Hudson

If I was voting: Abigail Breslin

Possible upsets: Not going to happen.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

• Leonardo DiCaprio for Blood Diamond
• Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson
• Peter O'Toole for Venus
• Will Smith for The Pursuit of Happyness
• Forest Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland

Breakdown: This one’s tricky. Forest Whitaker has won all of the major awards leading up to this, AND he’s the heavy favorite. However, I think that the Academy may not be able to resist giving the honor to Peter O’Toole. Think about it: he’s been nominated 8 times and has never won, and it would be a classic Oscar moment.

Predicted Winner: Peter O’Toole

If I was voting: Peter O’Toole

Possible upsets: Forest Whitaker (although, technically, O’Toole would be the upset)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

• Penélope Cruz for Volver
• Judi Dench for Notes on a Scandal
• Helen Mirren for The Queen
• Meryl Streep for The Devil Wears Prada
• Kate Winslet for Little Children

I’m not even going to waste your time, because no analysis is necessary. Helen Mirren should already have a space cleared out for her little gold man.

Predicted Winner: Helen Mirren

If I was voting: Meryl Streep

Possible upsets: None.

Achievement in Directing

• Clint Eastwood for Letters from Iwo Jima
• Stephen Frears for The Queen
• Alejandro González Iñárritu for Babel
• Paul Greengrass for United 93
• Martin Scorsese for The Departed

This should be Martin Scorsese’s year. However, people have been saying that for a long time. Like O’Toole, Scorsese has been disappointed on Oscar night a jillion times. However, look for Scorsese to finally get his due.

Predicted Winner: Martin Scorsese

If I was voting: Paul Greengrass

Possible upsets: Clint Eastwood. (NEVER count him out)

Best Motion Picture of the Year

• Babel
• The Departed
• Letters from Iwo Jima
• Little Miss Sunshine
• The Queen

This one is pretty wide open this year, which is very rare for a Best Picture race. I think that it’s fairly safe to count “The Queen” and “Letters from Iwo Jima” out, but that’s kind of risky. I think that the two main contenders are “Babel” and “Little Miss Sunshine.” I think that “Babel” will win it, although “Little Miss Sunshine” might just turn out to be the little film that could. . .

Predicted Winner: “Babel”

If I was voting: “Letters from Iwo Jima”

Possible upsets: “Little Miss Sunshine,” “The Departed.”

Keep in mind that, no matter how certain a category may seem, this is the Oscars and they just love to confound us with their picks. . . (“Shakespeare in Love,” anyone?)